Russian Economy ‘Imploding’ Under Pressure of Ukraine War Sanctions

• Experts say Russia’s economy is “imploding” as exports to the sanctioned country fall.
• Exports from 20 countries to Russia were down -50% from the same time a year prior.
• “We forecast a GDP collapse of -30% by end-2022,” a chief economist at IIF wrote.

Russia’s economy is collapsing as exports to the sanctioned country plummet in the face of President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing, unprovoked war in Ukraine, trade experts suggest. 

The “economy is imploding. We forecast a GDP collapse of -30% by end-2022,” Robin Brooks, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance trade group, tweeted on Sunday.  

Brooks added that data compiled with help from Jonathan Pingle, an IIF researcher, indicated that exports from 20 countries to Russia were down 50% in April compared to the same time a year prior. 

—Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) May 22, 2022

But monthly exports from Russia to other countries were up 64% in April compared to the same time a year prior, Brooks said on Monday, as oil and gas sales become a bigger part of Moscow’s revenue. 

Brooks said the country’s account surpluses were “massive,” which meant Russia was exporting far more than it was importing.

—Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) May 23, 2022

Russia stopped publishing its trade data after invading Ukraine in late February, so Brooks said the data was compiled using 20 of the country’s top trading partners.

The Observatory of Economic Complexity said Russia’s top trading partners include China and Germany.  

Since the invasion, European and Western countries have unveiled a slew of sanctions packages aimed at crippling Russia’s economy. 

Ukraine’s government has routinely lobbied for harsher sanctions and led a push to try to redirect European Union countries away from Russian gas and oil — a main source of Moscow’s federal revenue.